NBA 2026-27 Projections
Projected wins for all 30 teams entering 2026-27, built from the final 2025-26 standings with standard one-third regression to the mean — plus a head-to-head matchup tool and the honest math on why last season’s 64-win team projects to 56, not 64. The real schedule arrives in mid-August; until then everything here is schedule-neutral. New: full projected conference standings and 2027 draft lottery odds with a simulator.
Head-to-head matchup probability
Neutral floor, no home edge (there’s no schedule yet) — log5 of the two teams’ projected strength.
Probabilities, not predictions — and remember these are regular-season strength estimates, not playoff forecasts.
Power ratings & projected wins, 2026-27
Final 2025-26 record, regressed one-third toward .500 and projected over a neutral 82-game schedule.
| Team | 2025-26 | Proj. W | Proj. L | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 64-18 | 56.3 | 25.7 | |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 62-20 | 55.0 | 27.0 | |
| 3 | Detroit Pistons | 60-22 | 53.7 | 28.3 | |
| 4 | Boston Celtics | 56-26 | 51.0 | 31.0 | |
| 5 | Denver Nuggets | 54-28 | 49.7 | 32.3 | |
| 6 | New York Knicks | 53-29 | 49.0 | 33.0 | |
| 7 | Los Angeles Lakers | 53-29 | 49.0 | 33.0 | |
| 8 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 52-30 | 48.3 | 33.7 | |
| 9 | Houston Rockets | 52-30 | 48.3 | 33.7 | |
| 10 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 49-33 | 46.3 | 35.7 | |
| 11 | Toronto Raptors | 46-36 | 44.3 | 37.7 | |
| 12 | Atlanta Hawks | 46-36 | 44.3 | 37.7 | |
| 13 | Philadelphia 76ers | 45-37 | 43.7 | 38.3 | |
| 14 | Orlando Magic | 45-37 | 43.7 | 38.3 | |
| 15 | Phoenix Suns | 45-37 | 43.7 | 38.3 | |
| 16 | Charlotte Hornets | 44-38 | 43.0 | 39.0 | |
| 17 | Miami Heat | 43-39 | 42.3 | 39.7 | |
| 18 | Portland Trail Blazers | 42-40 | 41.7 | 40.3 | |
| 19 | LA Clippers | 42-40 | 41.7 | 40.3 | |
| 20 | Golden State Warriors | 37-45 | 38.3 | 43.7 | |
| 21 | Milwaukee Bucks | 32-50 | 35.0 | 47.0 | |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | 31-51 | 34.3 | 47.7 | |
| 23 | New Orleans Pelicans | 26-56 | 31.0 | 51.0 | |
| 24 | Dallas Mavericks | 26-56 | 31.0 | 51.0 | |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | 25-57 | 30.3 | 51.7 | |
| 26 | Sacramento Kings | 22-60 | 28.3 | 53.7 | |
| 27 | Utah Jazz | 22-60 | 28.3 | 53.7 | |
| 28 | Brooklyn Nets | 20-62 | 27.0 | 55.0 | |
| 29 | Indiana Pacers | 19-63 | 26.3 | 55.7 | |
| 30 | Washington Wizards | 17-65 | 25.0 | 57.0 |
Benchmark: NumberBench projection — final official 2025-26 standings (1,230 games; OKC 64-18 best overall, Detroit 60-22 best in the East; Knicks beat the Spurs in the Finals), regressed one-third to the mean, the same season-transition fraction our NFL and MLB models use. Schedule-neutral until the NBA releases the 2026-27 slate in mid-August.
Projected NBA standings 2026-27 — East & West
The same win totals split by conference: the projected playoff field (top six), the play-in band (7-10), and the lottery-bound bottom five. Teams with identical projections share a seed — real seeding tiebreakers need real games.
Eastern Conference
| Team | Proj W-L | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Detroit Pistons | 53.7-28.3 | Playoff |
| 2 | Boston Celtics | 51.0-31.0 | Playoff |
| 3 | New York Knicks | 49.0-33.0 | Playoff |
| 4 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 48.3-33.7 | Playoff |
| 5 | Toronto Raptors | 44.3-37.7 | Playoff |
| 6 | Atlanta Hawks | 44.3-37.7 | Playoff |
| 7 | Philadelphia 76ers | 43.7-38.3 | Play-in |
| 8 | Orlando Magic | 43.7-38.3 | Play-in |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | 43.0-39.0 | Play-in |
| 10 | Miami Heat | 42.3-39.7 | Play-in |
| 11 | Milwaukee Bucks | 35.0-47.0 | Lottery |
| 12 | Chicago Bulls | 34.3-47.7 | Lottery |
| 13 | Brooklyn Nets | 27.0-55.0 | Lottery |
| 14 | Indiana Pacers | 26.3-55.7 | Lottery |
| 15 | Washington Wizards | 25.0-57.0 | Lottery |
Western Conference
| Team | Proj W-L | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oklahoma City Thunder | 56.3-25.7 | Playoff |
| 2 | San Antonio Spurs | 55.0-27.0 | Playoff |
| 3 | Denver Nuggets | 49.7-32.3 | Playoff |
| 4 | Los Angeles Lakers | 49.0-33.0 | Playoff |
| 5 | Houston Rockets | 48.3-33.7 | Playoff |
| 6 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 46.3-35.7 | Playoff |
| 7 | Phoenix Suns | 43.7-38.3 | Play-in |
| 8 | Portland Trail Blazers | 41.7-40.3 | Play-in |
| 9 | LA Clippers | 41.7-40.3 | Play-in |
| 10 | Golden State Warriors | 38.3-43.7 | Play-in |
| 11 | New Orleans Pelicans | 31.0-51.0 | Lottery |
| 12 | Dallas Mavericks | 31.0-51.0 | Lottery |
| 13 | Memphis Grizzlies | 30.3-51.7 | Lottery |
| 14 | Sacramento Kings | 28.3-53.7 | Lottery |
| 15 | Utah Jazz | 28.3-53.7 | Lottery |
2027 NBA draft lottery odds — if the season goes to projection
The 14 teams outside the projected playoff field, seeded by projected record, with the official odds the NBA has used since 2019. The odds themselves are fixed by rule; what this table adds is who currently projects to hold each seed.
| Seed | Team | Proj. W | #1 pick | Top-4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Wizards | 25.0 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 2 | Indiana Pacers | 26.3 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 3 | Brooklyn Nets | 27.0 | 14.0% | 52.1% |
| 4 | Sacramento Kings | 28.3 | 12.5% | 48.1% |
| 5 | Utah Jazz | 28.3 | 10.5% | 42.1% |
| 6 | Memphis Grizzlies | 30.3 | 9.0% | 37.2% |
| 7 | New Orleans Pelicans | 31.0 | 7.5% | 32.0% |
| 8 | Dallas Mavericks | 31.0 | 6.0% | 26.3% |
| 9 | Chicago Bulls | 34.3 | 4.5% | 20.3% |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | 35.0 | 3.0% | 13.9% |
| 11 | Golden State Warriors | 38.3 | 2.0% | 9.4% |
| 12 | LA Clippers | 41.7 | 1.5% | 7.2% |
| 13 | Miami Heat | 42.3 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| 14 | Charlotte Hornets | 43.0 | 0.5% | 2.4% |
Benchmark: official NBA lottery odds (chances out of 1,000 for the No. 1 pick: 140-140-140-125-105-90-75-60-45-30-20-15-10-5), applied to NumberBench projected standings. Only the top four picks are drawn; picks 5-14 follow inverse record order. Tied projections (Kings/Jazz, Pelicans/Mavericks) effectively share their seed range.
Draft lottery simulator
Runs the real drawing math on the projected order — four weighted draws for the top four picks, everyone else slots by record.
How it’s calculated
Projected win% = .500 + (last season’s win% − .500) × ⅔. That one line is the whole model — deliberately. With no schedule, no summer-league box scores worth trusting, and rosters still moving, a transparent regression of real results beats a black box of guesses. The matchup tool combines two projected win percentages with the log5 formula, the standard method for head-to-head probability.
Model output, not a forecast — and not betting advice. Offseason trades and injuries are not priced in; this is a results-based starting line that the August schedule release and training camp will move.
Worked example
Oklahoma City finished 64-18, a .780 win rate. Regressing one-third of the way to .500: .500 + (.780 − .500) × ⅔ = .687, which over 82 games projects to 56.3 wins — still the league’s best, but nearly eight wins shy of a repeat. That gap is the honest price of health, close-game luck, and 29 other teams trying.
Frequently asked questions
Why does a 64-win team project to only 56 wins?
Regression to the mean. Extreme records are part true strength, part good fortune — health, close-game luck, opponents' shooting variance. Historically about a third of the distance between a team's record and .500 evaporates the next season on average, so the model regresses every team one-third of the way back. Oklahoma City's 64-18 (.780) becomes a projected .687, about 56 wins — still the best in the league, just honestly so.
Where is the strength of schedule?
It doesn't exist yet. The NBA releases its schedule in mid-August, so every team here is projected against a neutral, average-difficulty 82 games. Once the real schedule is out, the same ratings plug into a game-by-game projection exactly like our NFL page.
How does the matchup tool work?
It uses the log5 formula — the standard way to combine two teams' win percentages into a head-to-head probability. A .687 team versus a .500 team comes out to 68.7%; two equal teams are a coin flip. No home edge is applied since there's no schedule yet, so read it as a neutral-floor probability.
Are the 2025-26 records official?
Yes — final standings, all 1,230 games played: Oklahoma City led the league at 64-18, Detroit won the East at 60-22, and the New York Knicks beat the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals for their first championship since 1973.
Why do the defending champions project seventh?
The Knicks went 53-29 — a strong record, but five teams won more regular-season games, and playoff success doesn't feed a regular-season projection. Championships are won in April through June; this page only projects the 82-game season.
When will this page update?
When the 2026-27 schedule drops in mid-August, these ratings become game-by-game probabilities with home edge and rest factored in. Until then, treat the win totals as schedule-neutral central estimates.